WILL ATIKU’S EXIT FROM THE PDP BRING HIM VICTORY IN 2027?
By Bashir Yahuza Malumfashi
Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President of Nigeria, is leaving the PDP for the third time. His first exit was in 2006 when he joined the ACN to contest the 2007 presidential election, where he lost to Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of the PDP. His second exit was in 2014 when he defected to the APC and contributed to the party’s 2015 victory through Muhammadu Buhari. However, in 2017 he returned to the PDP and contested again in 2019 and 2023 but failed both times. As he confirms his latest departure in 2025, it will further highlight the role party-switching plays in his political career.
But then, could his exit now lead to something significant? Atiku’s recent move could be a strategy to reposition himself for the 2027 elections, especially if he aligns with emerging coalitions like the ADC, which is working to build a pan-Nigerian platform. He may challenge the dominance of the two major parties—APC and PDP—but the big question remains: will voters still trust him after his repeated failures?
And to the party he left, the PDP, what challenges PDP may it face after Atiku’s exit? Atiku’s departure is no small loss for the PDP. He is one of the party’s leading figures, especially influential in the Northeast and parts of the South. His exit could weaken the party’s unity and electoral strength, particularly if some of his loyalists follow him. It may also spark internal crises and force the party to restructure its leadership and strategy.
Could this move pose a threat to the ruling APC? While the PDP may be in disarray, the APC might see this as an opportunity. However, if Atiku finds a new platform like the ADC which is attracting technocrats, labour leaders, and development advocates, the APC could face a serious challenge. Still, the question is whether this new coalition can match the organizational strength and political machinery that Tinubu has built within the APC.
And now the million Dollar question, can Atiku defeat Tinubu in 2027? Despite widespread criticism of Bola Ahmed Tinubu over the economy and high cost of living, defeating an incumbent president more especially in Nigeria is never easy. Tinubu controls state resources and a powerful party structure. If Atiku secures the ADC ticket or another viable platform, he could present a strong challenge, especially if he forms alliances with influential politicians like Peter Obi or Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso. But this would require unity, funding, and a credible, well-structured campaign.
Let us examine the role of ADC and other opposition forces comes 2027 political dispensation. If in case the ADC offers Atiku its presidential ticket, it could signal the emergence of a new political direction in Nigeria, one that energizes the electorate especially the youth and struggling masses. However, Atiku will need to convince Nigerians that he represents a genuine alternative, not just another route to his old ambition of occupying Aso Rock.
In a nutshell, Atiku’s exit from the PDP could be an opportunity or a political miscalculation – depending on how he plays his next moves. If he builds a strong, inclusive coalition with national appeal, he could become a real threat to APC and Tinubu. But if the politics of ego and fragmentation continues, his exit may lead nowhere. Analysts and voters alike will be watching closely to see how this new chapter unfolds ahead of the 2027 elections.
__________
Bashir Malumfashi, a writer/poet is the editor of Taskar Gizago Magazine (online)
